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Can 'The Dark Knight Rises' Beat the Box-Office Record Just Set by 'The Avengers?'

By: Sean OConnell on May 7, 2012 at 11:40AM Comments (30)

 

 
Wow. Just … wow. Joss Whedon’s The Avengers threw down the gauntlet, earning a record-setting $200.3M at the domestic box office in its opening weekend, and raising the bar for summer blockbusters that dare to come out in its wake. 
 
Whedon’s film topped the previous all-time weekend opening number of $169.3M (set by the final chapter in the Harry Potter series), and set a slew of additional box office records including best Saturday gross (of $69.7) and best Sunday gross (of $50.1M). 
 
The next obvious question becomes, “Which movie will eventually beat the record just set by The Avengers?” And a quick scan of Summer 2012’s release schedule even produces an obvious answer.
 
Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight Rises.
 
But if you stop for a moment, take a deep breath and consider the facts, you’ll come to the same conclusion I have: The Dark Knight Rises has very little chance of topping the opening-weekend record just set by The Avengers.
 
Here are three reasons why:
 
1. No 3D
Fans everywhere likely are applauding Nolan’s decision to avoid 3D when it comes to the trilogy-capping conclusion of his spectacular Dark Knight series. Nolan sets most of his Batman adventures in the shadows, and the inherent dimness of a 3D experience probably would make the director’s moody visuals as muddled as Bane’s voice. (Well, before the digital makeover.) But the suits at Warner Bros. no doubt are cursing the lack of increased revenue that comes with a 3D ticket. I don’t think Whedon’s Avengers crosses $200M in its opening weekend without the 3D bump at the box office … and I don’t think Nolan’s anticipated film trumps The Avengers without it, either. 
 
2. It’s Not Family-Friendly
Not that parents are bringing pre-schoolers to The Avengers, but the lighter, accessible, and more heroic tone of Whedon’s blockbuster has broader appeal than Nolan’s uncompromisingly dark Batman universe. Again, fans of Nolan’s films wouldn’t have it any other way. But when we’re weighing universal appeal of the characters on screen, I’m giving the slight edge to The Avengers. Seeing Captain America, Iron Man, Thor and the Hulk in the same film gets people – even casual fans – out of the house on opening weekend. Seeing the late Heath Ledger nail an iconic villain like The Joker on screen also gets casual fans out of the house. With all due respect to Tom Hardy and Anne Hathaway, I’m not so sure Catwoman and Bane have the same drawing power. 
 
3. It Wasn’t First
Box office figures show that the first movies out of the gate in the summer season receive a financial bump. Last year, the enjoyable Fast Five boasted some of the best numbers in that franchise’s history. Thor and Woverine are other superheroes who posted big numbers by opening the summer seasons in their respective years. That’s not to say The Dark Knight Rises won’t do very well overall. But when it comes to opening weekend, the first frame of the summer and the holiday weekends of Memorial Day and July 4 do very well. The weekend of July 20 – when TDKR opens – is somewhat buried. By opening late in the summer, Batman also will face stiffer competition from films like The Amazing Spider-Man, G.I. Joe and another Ice Age. The Avengers faced off against Think Like a Man and The Hunger Games … and devoured them, whole. 
 
Listen, it’s completely possible that Nolan delivers a masterpiece in The Dark Knight Rises, concluding a trilogy that will go down in the record books as the greatest superhero series we’ve ever seen. And if it’s as good as fans hope, I can see TDKR eventually earning more than The Avengers at the overall box office. But for the reasons listed above, I’d be very surprised to see Dark Knight top the $200M mark set by Avengers in its opening weekend. 
 
What do you think? Will fans put their money behind Nolan’s epic on opening weekend? Or have enough Avengers fans assembled to keep Marvel’s mighty blockbuster on the top of those charts? Let us know below.
 

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Comments (30)Leave a Comment

  • May 21st 2012 4:22PM

    misteralfaman3  said...

    I have yet to see a Nolan movie that i have not loved and I defiantly think TDKR could make him the second director in history to have 2 billion dollar movies. how ever i do not think TDKR will beat the avengers, simply because everything TDKR has going against it, the avengers had for it. 3d, I do think 3d is a scam most of the time but people fall for it and since it cost more the movie makes more, how do you think Avatar got so much money. family friendly, Nolan is a genius and makes clean movies but he has a darkish fell to his to them makes the minimum age that will like the movie go up, kids will love to see batman but for a lot of ages the dark fell will give them nightmares and if Nolan keeps to the comic, kids will hate the end.

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  • May 21st 2012 5:12PM

    misteralfaman3  said...

    ... also kids and adults would love the avengers. lead female, both catwoman and black widow are strong, independent characters and, for us guys, are very hot, but i am sorry ann hathaway is not that hot (but she can be) and scarlett johansson is always gorgeous. romance, im not a fan of the romantic part of a movie but chicks are and it doesnt seem theres theres going to be any in TDKR and there wasnt in the avengers, but it there was a little bit of a connection between black widow and hawkeye at times (plus pepper and tony) which kept girls happy. bane, somepeople may think he sould have been played by a stronger person but i think its fine. timing, it doesnt help that the avengers is the first anticipated movie of the summer...

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  • May 21st 2012 5:26PM

    misteralfaman3  said...

    ... and TDKR has over 10 anticipated movies coming out before it during the summer, i will give TDKR the benefit of the doubt considering its level of anticipation which only about 3 movies this summer have (the avengers and snow white and the huntsman being the other 2). i will defiantly see TDKR when it comes out and Ledger did have a huge part in TDK's success but I don't think these reasons are enough for it not to be a hit at the box office.

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  • May 9th 2012 2:09PM

    men9mar  said...

    DK was a great movie but lets face it....it made money because of Heath Ledger

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  • May 8th 2012 7:13PM

    BIG-N-TASTY  said...

    TDKR will probably lose 20% off the top due to ledger not being there...REMEMBER everyone had him winning oscar after midnight release....(for the record i am a huge batman fan! and love nolans version better than keaton/burton). catwoman/hathaway will add some juice and girls (date night and teens who watched princess diaries + 5-6%). SO probably 14-15% less than dark knight, somewhere between: conservative $126 / $142 million high-end. The one thing in my opinion that looks crappy is the BANE character(dont mind voice) but bane is a super-juiced beast who broke batmans back...this guy doesnt look like gotham's reckoning??? i hope i am wrong....will see 1st showing!!!

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  • May 8th 2012 1:05PM

    DaFees  said...

    One thing people are forgetting is that yes TDKR isn't 3D but it was filmed in IMAX and if you want to see TDKR in the best way possible (just as you did with the Avengers by seeing it in 3D) you need to go to an IMAX theater, specifically one that is full size (See theaters here, [BLOCKED WEBSITE] that have 15/70 mm listed behind them). Now last time I checked IMAX tickets carry a bigger premium than 3D tickets at a regular theater do. So if everyone cared about quality and saw TDKR the way it was meant to be seen then it could easily stand up to the Avengers.

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  • May 8th 2012 11:20AM

    1538134103  said...

    Amazing comments. Thank you everyone, Keep them coming! We appreciate the feedback!

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  • May 8th 2012 10:25AM

    Javajive  said...

    THE DARK KNIGHT RISES has a phenomenal Cast/Crew just like THE AVENGERS!! So, it's very possible it could hold those same weekend gross numbers and if not well...'it's gonna do some serious gross numbers in the millions anyway during it's opening week for DC Comic's BATMAN & Company (Heroe's & Villains) are quite a power-punch Classic Franchise, also. Looking forward to the new BATMAN Movie-TDKR. Enjoyed "every" awesome sequel Actor Christian Bale been in (especially BATMAN Begins, my favorite) leading up to the Epic conclusion. Director Christopher NOLAN has another major hit on his hands.

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  • May 8th 2012 9:27AM

    Mari's_Love  said...

    I look at it this way, when the dark knight first came out, it made $158 million dollars opening weekend, then went on to become the third highest grossing movie of all time. The Dark knight rises marketing campaign is promising fans a very dark very entertaining movie, and its suppose to be the last of the trilogy. Now with that being said, more than likely anyone who went to see the dark knight opening weekend 4 years ago, plus anyone who likes super heroes, plus a lot of the Marvel fans who went to see the avengers will tune in to see TDKR opening weekend.

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  • May 8th 2012 8:56AM

    moviegor all the time  said...

    Avengers was everything it was hyped to be. Didn't disappoint. Action, effects, story, one liners. Just the right amount of action and humor. It covers more of an family friendly age group. Batman has a certain and faithful fanbase. But so does, Iron Man and the Marvel comic heros. Batman will probably be visually stunning but very dark, written well but it depends on the reviews for people to see it more than once, which is where Avengers will make its money.

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  • May 8th 2012 8:50AM

    turtles90  said...

    I'm still excited after reading all this myself.By the way,I can tell you're a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles fan,as well.

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  • May 8th 2012 11:28AM

    NinjaGrapeTurtle  said...

    Yes!!!!! Ninja Turtles are amazing!!!!!!!! Super excited for TDKR!!

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  • May 7th 2012 10:59PM

    NinjaGrapeTurtle  said...

    I think that TDKR will come close but the way I see it, is that the Avengers is a super hero team up! Yes the Dark Knight trilogy is epic and all sorts of awesome and yes they have a great cast and director but so does the Avengers. And on top of that it had what the majority of super hero fans had been waiting for for a long long time. Like I said: super hero tam up!! I think TDKR will do great but it most likely will not out do the Avengers. I'm still excited though!!!

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  • May 7th 2012 8:26PM

    sonn13  said...

    TDKR is not 3D, so the ticket value will not be there, but I truly believe that it will be a far superior movie than Avengers. Don't get me wrong I liked The Avengers, but it's full of 'bells and whistles", where Nolan's TDKR will most likely be more of story telling and character, which is really what makes a movie great. And honestly if TDKR turns out to be the great movie that I'm hoping it will be, I think it's time that the Academy gives Nolan some recognition for three EXCELLENT Dark Knight movies. Also, without Robert Downey Jr, The Avengers movie would not have been that good. Downey "Rocked" all of his scenes.

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  • May 7th 2012 5:20PM

    Arbelton  said...

    It'll make a lot of money, it might even actually come close, but I'm pretty sure TDKR is not going to top The Avengers' record. I mean c'mon that $200 million is MASSIVE. But I do think it is going to be the better of the two, possibly the best movie of the summer. Don't get me wrong I absolutely loved The Avengers. great action, hilarious, one of the funnest times I've had at the movies. But The Dark Knight Rises I think will be a lot better. Although I am kind of worried it's not going to be as good as The Dark Knight (but then again it's kind of hard to do that) or live up to the really really high expectations a lot of people have for it. So no, it's probably not going to beat that record, but it is going to be really good, I can tell

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  • May 7th 2012 6:14PM

    SciFiFantasyActionFan  said...

    I too wonder if TDKR can be better than TDK. I keep asking myself, how can any movie top TDK?

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  • May 7th 2012 6:44PM

    brazen85  said...

    One way it's better already is no Maggie Gyllenhaal!

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  • May 7th 2012 4:29PM

    paulavila2002  said...

    The Avengers will definitely out gross The Dark Knight Rises, however, TDKR will most certainly be the better, more epic of the two. Nolan is a far Superior director to Whedon, who couldn't even get his version of Batman made and who had Wonder Woman taken away from him and he was more established than Nolan at the time. Avengers did so well because of the name itself and the characters along with the actors. Nothing about this movie screamed Whedon. I personally feel if Jon Favreau directed the result would be the same. Nevermind 3D. Avengers is family friendly while TDKR is not and that is okay with me. The Avengers is not Whedon's vision, it's Marvel's. Nolan's vision of Batman is something Whedon dreams about. Story over action.

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  • May 7th 2012 4:42PM

    brazen85  said...

    Well said!

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  • May 7th 2012 6:41PM

    kencole88  said...

    Ditto!

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  • May 8th 2012 9:28AM

    Mari's_Love  said...

    Right on!

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  • May 8th 2012 10:17AM

    Lisbeth S  said...

    BOOM!!!

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  • May 7th 2012 2:38PM

    Dark_Elyc  said...

    I think it could, but I don't think it will. Mainly due to the "Avengers" having more of a family-friendly atmosphere, and Spider-man comes out a few weeks before it. That might hinder how it does, but this is Batman, and it is the last one Chris Nolan is doing. I say it will do better overall, but it will be a close race for opening weekend.

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  • May 7th 2012 12:38PM

    brazen85  said...

    It may or may not top The Avengers, but it won't change how much I'll love The Dark Knight Rises. The Avengers can "smash" all the records it wants to, and I thoroughly enjoyed the movie, but it will never be or do what TDKR can be and do. I hope TDKR is recognized for what it undoubtably will be, an Oscar contender.

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  • May 7th 2012 12:26PM

    HoodCritic1  said...

    "The Avengers" really made a statement last weekend and it really did live up to expectations. It deserved its money and should be on top of the box office for a while. "The Dark Knight Rises" launched its latest trailer before "The Avengers" was presented and that was a smart strategy to attract an audience and then you have to consider that TDKR is helmed by a master director and is the sequel to one of the best movies of the last decade. If Christopher Nolan could pull off something as intricate and as ingenious as "Inception," I'm fairly confident that he can topple "The Avengers." "The Dark Knight Rises," will rule the summer.

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